The hottest six theme words look at the wind direc

The six theme words look at the wind direction of the agricultural machinery market

the general economic trend is vast, and every industry is constantly moving forward in the process of reform and innovation, trial and reflection, adjustment and integration. For enterprise management, it is inseparable from the cognitive renewal under the new competitive environment at any time, and it is increasingly important to study and judge the trend and foresee the future

standing on the edge of the end of the year and looking at the development trend of the domestic agricultural machinery market, the superposition of positive and negative factors has derived too many unknown and uncertain predictions, like small and tough ropes that affect everyone's nervous tension in the industry. To sum up the past, interpret new ideas, and continue to move forward to accumulate strength, the author summarizes six key words to look at the development direction of the agricultural machinery market with you. It is inevitable that there are deficiencies

On February 4, the 20th since the reform and opening up and the 15th since the new century to guide the work of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" was authorized by Xinhua news agency to issue the No. 1 central document, entitled "opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on the implementation of the rural Revitalization Strategy", which comprehensively deployed the implementation of the Rural Revitalization Strategy. Since 2004, the central "No.1 Document" has focused on "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" for 15 consecutive years. It can be said that policy dividends are the first driving force to drive the market. In this sense, the overall political environment faced by the agricultural machinery industry is still good. At the same time, there are many kinds of domestic crops with different degrees of mechanization, such as rice machine cutting, grain drying, sugarcane machine harvesting, vegetable mechanical operation, etc., which are the shortcomings of mechanized lifting, and there is a large room for improvement. In a deeper sense, made in China 2025, as the development target document of the national agricultural machinery and equipment industry, puts forward clear objectives and requirements for the agricultural machinery and equipment industry: by 2025, there will be a complete range of machinery for the production of bulk grain and strategic economic crops, and the market share of domestic agricultural machinery products will be stable and higher than 95%; High end products such as large tractors and cotton pickers with more than 200 horsepower have a market share of 60%. Break through the core technology of animal and plant object recognition and monitoring, and put into use intelligent operation machines for field sowing and fertilization, plant protection, harvesting, and milking robots in farms; Fully grasp the key technologies of core device manufacturing and machine reliability, and increase the mean time between failure of tractors and combine harvesters to 330 hours and 100 hours respectively, reaching the international advanced level; The main business income of the agricultural machinery industry has reached 800 billion yuan... Another example is that at present, the rural land circulation is accelerated, and there is still huge room for the whole process and comprehensive mechanization to improve, which have become favorable factors for the development of the agricultural machinery market. Both advantages and disadvantages exist. At the same time, we also have to face the impact of negative factors such as transformation and upgrading, structural adjustment, supply side reform to remove excess capacity, and grain price market integration. Overall, the growth rate of agricultural machinery market scale will further slow down in 2018, and the current situation of low overall profit level will continue. From the perspective of agricultural machinery categories, it is predicted that tractors, wheat machines, rice machines and corn machines will continue to move forward, flat or slightly increased, in the low-lying areas formed in 2017; Emerging categories such as dryers, animal husbandry machinery and cash crop machinery markets such as cotton and sugarcane will continue to rise; Overseas business will continue to pick up and export business will further expand; The integration and elimination of excess traditional categories will accelerate, and more niche categories will be more unexpected in front of people... Although there are still many difficulties, the overall development of the industry is good, and confidence is more important than ever

theme word 2: inefficient operation

small steps, slow speed, steady progress

since 2014, the agricultural machinery industry has entered a low-speed development stage, the main business income has fallen from double-digit growth to single digit growth, and the proportion between profit and sales revenue has decreased year by year. According to industry statistics, the scale of the agricultural machinery market in 2017 may reach 510billion yuan, the profit level is about 27billion yuan, and the scale growth rate is about 7%, The profit accounts for about 5%, and the overall profit level is relatively low. According to the analysis of the normal market development law, at present, the agricultural machinery industry is still in the deep adjustment and transformation stage of supply side reform, removal of excess capacity, alleviation of supply contradictions, and product upgrading, and the trend of inefficient operation will continue. In 2018, the overall scale growth will remain in single digits, and the overall profit level is still very limited. From the analysis of agricultural machinery categories, it is expected that the sales volume of large and medium-sized trailers will remain at about 520000 units The sales volume of wheeled grain combine harvesters is about 30000 units, that of crawler grain combine harvesters is about 90000 units, and that of corn combine harvesters is about 45000 units. The sales volume of traditional agricultural machinery categories has climbed slightly in the depression formed in 2017, with a slight increase year-on-year. At the same time, niche products such as animal husbandry machinery, cash crop harvesting machinery, vegetable machinery, grain drying machinery will continue to grow, and the overall product volume will continue to increase

theme word 3: climbing

upgrading, we must move forward with a heavy load

there are three reasons why 2018 is positioned as the "Climbing" year of the agricultural machinery Market: first, since 2014, when it entered the stage of slow development, the same categories, mainly represented by large and medium-sized tractors and grain combine harvesters, have entered a relatively "low" stage, relying on market upgrading and product upgrading, 2018 may rise slightly in stability; Second, after three consecutive years of market adjustment, "product competition" has become the most fundamental means to win the market. The huge volume of domestic agricultural machinery must be constantly adjusted in the process of upgrading. Only when the product is upgraded, will it not turn the scale into a burden. The upgrading of agricultural machinery products will be a painstaking and excellent "Climbing" process; Third, in recent years, the domestic agricultural machinery market is not easy to do, and more and more enterprises extend their tentacles to foreign markets. With the expansion of export business, the road is long and the service is limited, which forces the domestic agricultural machinery manufacturing to do a good job in quality upgrading around the improvement of reliability. It is imperative to upgrade the agricultural machinery industry in an all-round way. This process is of far-reaching significance and will also be a huge challenge. For example, domestic manufacturing has huge room to improve in the field of large-scale, high-end and intelligent products, there are still many new processes, new materials and new technical barriers, and the shortcomings of industrial design, patent application and reliability assurance need to be supplemented... Domestic agricultural machinery manufacturing is moving forward with a bright future and great significance

theme word 4: rebalance

tradition and niche, or change the "heavy head"

reviewing the development process of the domestic agricultural machinery industry, over the years, machinery types represented by tractors and combine harvesters have become the mainstream of market sales. The market sales of the two major categories of products account for more than 50% of the total sales of the domestic agricultural machinery market, forming a huge "traditional category mass market" in a relative sense. In 2017, Traditional agricultural machinery fell in unison, while the niche market grew rapidly, which inadvertently and rapidly changed people's fixed thinking and cognition. For the operation of the agricultural machinery market in 2017, people feel that Bayer materials technology is your best partner for innovation. It is more direct than data statistics. "Decline, bleak, difficult to earn money, cold winter" has almost become the characteristic "label" of this year. The decline of traditional categories makes people feel that the automatic calculation of experimental machines shows a huge downward pressure on relevant data. Relatively speaking, although economic crop machinery, vegetable machinery The market sales of niche categories such as drying machinery, animal husbandry machinery and grain post-processing have all shown good growth performance, but their scale and volume account for a relatively small proportion in the overall agricultural machinery industry, which will take some time to grow. In other words, "policy orientation, rigid demand, and short board replenishment" are still the three key factors driving the development of the agricultural machinery market in 2018. Since the second half of 2017, the Ministry of agriculture has emphasized the support for the green development of agriculture, such as grain drying and storage, subsoiling and land preparation, no tillage sowing, efficient plant protection, water-saving irrigation, efficient fertilization, straw returning and leaving the field, residual film recycling, resource utilization of livestock and poultry manure With open subsidies for machines and tools such as the harmless treatment of dead livestock and poultry, the policy is favorable, and the further development of the niche market has a good environmental foundation. At the same time, many agricultural machinery manufacturing enterprises have gradually adjusted their attention to the niche agricultural machinery categories with large rigid demand, injecting the vitality of category upgrading to a certain extent. It can be seen that the structural adjustment of the domestic agricultural machinery market will continue to accelerate in 2018, the rebalancing of the overall industry is imperative, and the relatively small category will grow into a mass category just around the corner

theme word 5: Subversion

in the information age, the boundary is no longer

today, the vigorous development of information technology is constantly changing people's living habits, making it a reality to put the unimaginable convenience and intelligence of placing the cutting edge of the sample on the support face up. For example, five years ago, how many people would have imagined that they could sell vegetables in the market with one hand, take the train first, and complete data remote control? Information technology is imperceptibly changing people's way of life and penetrating into all fields on which people depend for survival. The agricultural machinery industry is no different, whether it is an information interaction platform for trading, service and dissemination built by "Internet +"; It is also a robot operation and fully automated production line created by industrial upgrading; Even high-tech drones, precision fertilization, artificial intelligence for remote operation of whole process mechanical operations... The intelligent transformation of agricultural machinery industry is deepening day by day. In 2018, it is expected that with the support and promotion of national policies, the intelligent process of agricultural machinery will speed up, the fixed and conventional industry boundaries will be constantly broken and reorganized, and people's traditional cognition will be constantly subverted. The application, integration and renewal of information technology for the agricultural machinery industry will be beyond imagination

theme word 6: new pattern

the integration accelerates, and the strong is stronger

as we all know, since 2004, the domestic agricultural machinery market has experienced what is known as the "golden decade" of rapid development, and the industrial scale jumped to the first in the world in 2012. In those years, the huge market demand attracted the world's top brands to enter, and the domestic agricultural machinery manufacturing investment is hot. Up to now, the domestic agricultural machinery manufacturing volume is still huge, and the degree of mechanization has increased year by year, but it has also formed many shortcomings, such as large but not strong, refined but not specialized, scattered industries, and inefficient products. According to statistics, there are more than 2500 domestic agricultural machinery manufacturing enterprises, and the overall level is uneven. Especially in the traditional category manufacturing, some enterprise production lines are still backward in the stall layout, medium and low-end manufacturing, and low value-added development, Serious homogenization, blindly relying on low cost and low price competition, product quality can be imagined. Since 2014, the agricultural machinery market has entered the stage of upgrading and transformation, and "products" are increasingly becoming the determinant of industry competition. The integration, elimination and extinction among manufacturing enterprises are accelerating. It is expected that this integration will continue in 2018, and the market competition will become more intense. Enterprises with core technology, excellent quality, perfect services, advanced manufacturing, reasonable system, solid team and other advantages will become the mainstream of the industry, The concentration of industrial development will be further improved, and the demise of enterprises that cannot keep up with the development of the industry will be common, and the new pattern of agricultural machinery industry development will "take shape for the first time"