The hottest Salomon Meibang lowered the price expe

2022-08-14
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Salomon Smith Barney (SSB) pulp, paper and forestry analysts reduced their expectations for pulp prices next year by 8.9% on October 10. They also lowered the price expectations of major paper products in 2002 and 2003

analysts chip Dillon, Richard holohan and Timothy thein pointed out in their analysis report that after the terrorist attacks on September 11, the price situation next year is grim. Previously, they had expected the price peak to occur in 2003, but now it has been pushed back to 2004. On the positive side, however, this will prolong the price cycle

these analysts predict that the economies of the United States and Japan will decline in the next quarter. The growth rate in Europe will be less than 1.0% in the second half of this year and only 1.4% in 2002

they also warned that the United States needs to devalue the euro by 20% or more to avoid affecting the arrival of the next economic peak

holohan said that all these forecasts were "made against the background of the high US dollar exchange rate". He said, "it can't be overemphasized.". For pulp, the reduction of the US dollar exchange rate can reduce the import cost of Europe (Europe's pulp demand accounts for 40% of the world), and make the price rise rapidly and reach a new high

he also said that the quotation of northern bleached cork kraft pulp (NBSK) in Europe in September 2001 was 450 US dollars/metric ton, equivalent to 1000 German marks/metric ton; In 1995, the price was about 1000 US dollars/metric ton, equivalent to 1450 German marks/metric ton. In comparison, the current price is 55% lower than the previous high in dollar terms, while it is only 31% lower in German mark terms

analysts, the local government attached great importance to the development of lithium industry and lowered the average price of pulp in 2001 from $560/mt earlier to $510/Mt. They expect the price to rise by 16.7% to $595/MT in 2003 (previously expected to be $675/MT)

they believe that the price will reach a high point in 2004, with an average of $695/Mt. This will be 2.2% higher than the average price of $680/MT in 2000, but 21.3% lower than the average price of $883/MT in 1995

ssb's expectation of 2001 pulp price is 0.9% higher than the previous $535/Mt. Holohan explained that this is because the price has reached the manufacturer's cost line, causing a rebound

the company believes that this year's commodity pulp shipments will decline by 4.0%, more than double their previous forecast of 1.9%. They predict that shipments will recover by 3.4% in 2002, although the global economy will stagnate at the beginning of the year; The increase in demand in 2003 will exceed 7%

at present, pulp manufacturers are trying to implement their price increase plan of $480/MT in Europe. Many observers believe that this process takes several months, and there is no problem with the experiment. They are worried about whether this behavior can be sustained without improving demand

as for the demand for paper and paperboard, SSB predicts that it will decrease by 1.4% in 2001, while they previously thought it would increase slightly; The projected growth rates for 2002 and 2003 are 1.4 per cent and 3.3 per cent, respectively

ssb said that the price of uncoated chemical pulp paper (based on the fact that it has been gradually phased out by the market in paper cutting) will drop by 3.1% to $778/short ton this year; Next year, it will decrease by 4.5% to 743 US dollars/short ton, and in 2003, it will rise to 795 US dollars/2. The two models are relatively short ton (previously predicted to be 850 US dollars/short ton), and in 2004, it will be 875 US dollars/short ton

this year, the average price of paper will rise by 4.7% to $592/MT (down 1.3% from the earlier forecast), but next year, the decline will be as high as 8.8% to $540/MT (down 10.9% from the earlier forecast). In 2003, it will rise to US $610/MT (originally US $665/MT), and in 2004, it will be US $665/Mt

this year, the price of vermicelli paperboard will decline by 6.5% to $434/short ton, fell to $395/short ton in 2002, and rebounded to $450/short ton in 2003 - previously expected to be $495/short ton - reaching $495/short ton in 2004

ssb raised the price expectation of bleached paperboard in 2001 by 2.4% to 850 US dollars/short ton, while the forecast value in 2002 remained unchanged at 835 US dollars/short ton. However, the price in 2001 is still expected to be 1.2% lower than that in 2000. The price in 2003 and 2004 will reach 855 US dollars/short ton and 905 US dollars/short ton respectively

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